The image of Tan Sri Annuar Musa campaigning at the orang Asli Pos in a Louis Vuitton jacket and giving out "cenderahati" (gifts) of biscuits and Maggi Mee sealed the unexpected win for UMNO iin Nenggiri, Hulu Kelantan and somewhat avenge Unity Government's PKR dismal lost at Sungai Bakap.
Being made a campaign target and politically cyberbullied, Annuar the loud, narcissistic and a bully himself chose to respond head-on to the viral image of the price tag of his LV jacket and other luxury branded clothings, footwear and watches on stage in Kelantanese dilect, "It's up to me, it's my money!"
Without knowledge of happening on the ground, that seemed to pretty much sealed Bersatu's fate that saw BN win back the state assembly seat lost at the 15th general election, in which the longest serving MP in Malaysia, the venerable Tengku Razaleign Hamzah lost the seat he held since 1974.
Its a consoling win for Ku Li with UMNO's Mohamed Asmawi Fikri beaten Bersatu's imported candidate from PAS, Mohd Iswardi Ismail by 3.352 votes. His influence and respect among the Orang Asli remain.
Star Online analysis today:Experts: BN’s strategic gambit led to Nenggiri win
By TARRENCE TAN
Nation
Monday, 19 Aug 2024
PETALING JAYA: A “low-profile” campaign, the absence of controversial Pakatan Harapan leaders, and a swing among Orang Asli voters towards Umno were among the factors that led to Barisan Nasional’s surprise win in the Nenggiri by-election, say analysts.
Barisan also fielded the right candidate in the Kelantan seat because it managed to convince traditional Umno supporters to return to the fold in droves, thus increasing its vote share from 46.2% in the state elections last year to 60.7%.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Barisan also successfully leveraged Umno veteran and long-time Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah’s influence to restore the support it lost in the state polls last year.
“With Tengku Razaleigh’s influence, the segment of Orang Asli voters who became Barisan’s fixed deposit was successfully restored and contributed to Umno’s victory,” he said.
Fielding local boy Mohd Azmawi Fikri as Barisan’s candidate was the correct choice as he is from Kampung Bertam Lama and known for his community service work, added Hisommudin.
On the other hand, Perikatan Nasional made a mistake when it fielded former PAS leader Mohd Rizwadi Ismail as it may have caused dissatisfaction among Gua Musang’s Bersatu leaders.
“This likely led to protest votes where many of their supporters did not go out to cast their ballots,” said Hisommudin of Bersatu, a component party of Perikatan together with PAS.
Despite having a low-profile campaign and no election manifesto, Barisan’s campaign was effective as it focused on targeted group talks to persuade Umno members and their supporters to back the coalition, he said.
“Top leaders went to the ground to explain and clarify issues for their members. It was an effective approach, coupled with a structured response to address issues of cooperation with Pakatan and DAP,” said Hisommudin.
Barisan recaptured the Nenggiri state seat when Mohd Azmawi Fikri won by a majority of 3,352 votes.
Azmawi polled 9,091 votes to beat Rizwadi who got 5,739 votes.
Political scientist Assoc Prof Mazlan Ali said the high voter turnout, which was unusual for a by-election, showed that Umno was successful in its traditional strategy of mobilising voters using targeted and small ceramah (rallies).
Mini ceramah are Umno’s speciality. Compared with Perikatan’s strategy of holding large-scale meetings, Umno was focused on holding small group meetings that were more targeted,” said Assoc Prof Mazlan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.
He added that the results showed that Orang Asli voters strongly backed Umno and have completely rejected Perikatan and the Kelantan state government.Nusantara Strategic Research Academy senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said the Nenggiri by-election marks the first time since the 15th General Election in 2022 that the incumbent party has lost to a challenger.
“To make matters worse, Kelantan is a PAS stronghold. To lose by a majority of over 3,000 votes is really a slap in PAS’s face,” he said.
Azmi also said Barisan’s strategy of distancing itself from Pakatan paid off, as it managed to gain the support of its core Umno supporters – as shown by the voter turnout that shot to 73.9% compared with 61% last year.
“The extra 13 percentage points came from Umno supporters who came out in droves to support Umno. Hence, the huge turnout,” he added.
On top of retaining the polling districts it won last year, Barisan seized 10 polling districts from Perikatan, which only won in three of them – Pasir Tumboh, Ladang SEDC and Kesedar Limau Kasturi.
Last year, during the state elections, Perikatan won the postal voting stream and 13 out 22 polling districts.
Barisan then only managed to win the early voting stream and seven polling districts – Tohoi, Pos Simpor, Sungai Puian, Sungai Jenera, Sungai Wias, Sungai Asap and Meranto.
Among the significant gains by Barisan on Saturday was the Jeram Tekoh polling district, where Barisan won with a 460-vote majority after garnering 1,035 votes against Perikatan’s 575.Barisan nearly doubled its vote count in Jeram Tekoh because last year, the Umno-led coalition only managed to get 547 votes against Perikatan’s 766.
In the Kuala Sungai polling district, Barisan doubled its vote count by garnering 154 ballots against Perikatan’s 105.
Last year, Barisan only managed to get 76 votes against Perikatan’s 110.
Another notable result was the Jerek polling district, where Barisan got 550 votes against Perikatan’s 519.
Last year, Perikatan won the Jerek seat with 541 votes against Barisan’s 333.
In the three Nenggiri polling districts won by Perikatan, its winning majorities were significantly reduced to only two-digit margins.
In the Kesedar Limau Kasturi polling district, Perikatan only managed to win by a 25-vote majority after garnering 217 votes against Barisan’s 192.
In the state elections last year, Perikatan won Kesedar Limau Kasturi with a 120-vote majority after garnering 230 votes against Barisan’s 119.
A similar outcome was seen at the Pasir Tumboh polling district, where Perikatan won with a mere 51-vote majority, garnering 352 ballots against Barisan’s 301. Last year, Perikatan obtained a 141-vote majority after getting 352 votes against Barisan’s 211.
At the Ladang SEDC polling district, Perikatan only won with an 84-vote majority after getting 350 votes against Barisan’s 266.
Sigh of relief for UMNO and confidence booster coming to Bukit Mahkota by-election in late September. Joceline Tan on Sunday wrote:
Nenggiri an emotional victory for Umno
By Joceline Tan
Analysis
Sunday, 18 Aug 2024 2:06 PM MYT
IT was quite an emotional night for the Umno crowd to realise that they had actually snatched back the Nenggiri seat from Bersatu with a massive majority.
One might say it was nothing short of a miracle because defeating the incumbent party in a by-election is always an uphill task.
Moreover, the battleground is 90% Malay and in a state that has been under PAS rule for more than 30 years.
Umno secretary-general Datuk Dr Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki, who had camped in Gua Musang for much of the campaign, was clearly over the moon going by his victory speech.
It was a sweet moment for a party that has suffered so many setbacks and much humiliation over the last several years.
Former Kok Lanas assemblyman Datuk Seri Alwi Che Ahmad had tears in his eyes as he embraced those around him.
“For the first time, I felt hope,” said Alwi.
However, all eyes were on Umno Youth chief Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh, the Melaka state exco member, who has managed to connect with the younger cohort in this remote constituency.
Umno’s Nenggiri campaign was basically an Umno Youth campaign because the candidate Mohd Azmawi Abdul Ghani, or Awie as he is better known, was the wing’s local chief.
As such, the campaign had a youthful vibe and energy. Akmal was seen playing football with the local boys, riding a motorcycle through the villages wearing a sarung and even going on jogs.
Akmal is arguably the most controversial figure in Umno, voicing out issues that make his party president uncomfortable. He is constantly vilified by non-Malays who find him to be an ultra-Malay.
But the things non-Malays dislike about him are what makes him so popular in Umno.
For instance, even while campaigning, he hit out at DAP over the court decision to lift the ban over a cartoon publication by its former member Hew Kuan Yau, who is more famously known as Superman.
“Akmal has earned his stripes. The Youth wing will be seen as the new backbone of Umno, taking over from the Wanita wing which is no longer as visible as in the past,” said an aide to a former minister.
The irony was that Umno went in with quite low expectations. So many Malay hearts have turned green and Nenggiri was seen as a “kerusi hijau” (green seat).
Moreover, it was not uncommon to hear people saying they wanted to “pakoh bule,” the Kelantan slang for pangkah bulan (vote for the moon or PAS), on the campaign trail.
As a result, the Umno camp was stunned to score a majority of 3,352 votes, reversing Bersatu’s previous majority of 810 votes by the thousands.
There will be lots of soul-searching on the Perikatan Nasional end about what went wrong for them.
Perikatan also offered a young candidate in Mohd Rizwardi Ismail. He used to be the PAS deputy Youth chief for Gua Musang but in order to become the candidate, he was asked to quit PAS to become a Bersatu member.
It was supposed to be a win-win solution, aimed at appeasing the Bersatu ground while winning the goodwill of PAS supporters. But the crossover was simply too weird to swallow given that the by-election was caused by a crossover of sorts by the previous assemblyman.
Although Perikatan presented an impressive election manifesto of promises that made the Umno campaign nervous, its campaign came across as dated and lacking in energy.
It was the incumbent, it was in control of the state but its leaders sounded more like the opposition, going on the attack rather than telling voters what it had done for them.
Some now claim that it was a mistake to make Tan Sri Annuar Musa the election director. They thought the former Umno bigwig would be able to puncture Umno’s campaign since he knew their secrets and tactics.
But he was out of his depth against the combined vigour and organisational skills of Umno’s Asyraf and Akmal.
Umno had also assigned Datuk Seri Johari Ghani, the most dynamic of the three vice-presidents, to play a bigger role in this campaign.
Johari had even organised a lunch gathering in Kuala Lumpur for a few dozen outstation Nenggiri voters to impress them to return to vote.
Annuar poked at Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s extravagance for arriving in Nenggiri in a helicopter.
Unfortunately, Annuar was photographed campaigning in an Orang Asli village wearing an expensive Louis Vuitton shirt.
The Umno campaign is said to be grateful to Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah for telling DAP to stay away because its cooperation with Umno was exploited by Perikatan which claimed that a vote for Umno is a vote for DAP.
Parts of Nenggiri have that middle-of-nowhere air about it. But even in the interior spots, Umno campaigners confessed that Malay voters would voice their concern about two issues – the leadership of Ahmad Zahid and deep-seated suspicions about DAP.
There are allegations that money flowed like water which is not hard to believe given how anxious both sides were to win.
Like in many by-elections, the candidates were often overshadowed by the big guns who came down to campaign. However, Umno’s Azmawi has the likable factor because even when he stands alongside big names in the party, his personality comes through.
“In the end, it was also about choosing a good YB. Azmawi has initiative and has used his own resources to help people in Gua Musang even before this,” said Kelantan-born Umno politician Ainul Aizat Ahmad Ishak.
The Nenggiri win will help lift the mood at the Umno general assembly next week.
“Winning one by-election does not mean we can win the general election. But we are changing, the next generation is coming up,” said Alwi.
No comments:
Post a Comment