"Trump"-triggered market crash, recession, and global systemic collapse

The current conversation in local bourse is what is the new and constantly changing support level as market plunge on two straight days of Wall Street crash.

Trump's tariff war on Canada last night saw him ordered for 50% retaliatory tariff on Canadian steel and alumnium for Dow Jones reeled down by 450 points. A day earlier, his mention of the R word for recession sent it crashing by almost 900 points.  

For Malaysia, it is already 20 weeks of market decline due to foreign investors pulling out. It is most worrisome for a market that have yet to have a bull run since 2014. The buzzword is recession and recession triggered volatility. There is none of the expected "Trump bump", but sell-off every time he speaks and its economic impact. 

The conversation has shifted to beyond conversation on market crash and recession, but systematic global collapse. What is to come of Malaysia? 

No more Petronas: More taxes to come?

Anwar Ibrahim claimed the Petros-Petronas spat is resolved. There is no resolution on how Petros and Petronas will be cooperating together in projects such as the cancelled Lang Lebah fields. It is the usual safe statement to contain any conflict from worsening and buy time for a resolution. No lying there. 

Need to repeat it again, the problem could have been avoided had Petronas been mindful of the increasing sensitivity of MA63 in Sabah and Sarawak, admit their fault and discontinue the grave "mistakes" committed, and not acted arrogantly. 

Given the fiscal constrain of the Federal Government to reduce subsidy, large expenditure for government salary and pension, and low tax collection, Petronas exacerbated the financial situation presently worsening due to the current global economic and trade turmoil. 

Petronas have been rushing to expedite Najib-era initiated "reimagined" new path on the possibility oil could either dry up or the industry is no more ESG acceptable to financiers. Its CEO recently raised the  bleak possibility of Petronas may not exist in 10 years. Latest net profit for 2024 of RM55.1 billion is a shrinkage by 32% rom 2023. It has been falling since 2021.

Its a global trend! 

Government funded political campaign without wasteful poster war?

Anwar Ibrahim stressed on economic reform over institution or political reform. 

Given the current economic situation, demand on the national coffer is endless but contribution into the fund getting challenging. Livelihood should take precedent over high-falluting ideals. 

If there is any reform that need expediting, political funding would be one. Anwar's expressed willingness to do so in November last year.   

This blogger is in sync but not so much for the need of a framework to govern political funding as expressed by C7, but more for the reason expressed by the Minister in the Prime Minister's Department (Law and Institutional Reform), Datuk Seri Azalina Othman Said to mitigate corruption risks.  

According to Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) Chief Commissioner, Tan Sri Azam Baki, policy development for the Political Financing Bill is on going and the bill slated for tabling in Parliament in 2026. 

Petros-Petronas spat is far from resolve

Upon the demise of Allahyarham Tun Pehin Seri Taib Mahmud in February 2024, open and frank conversation over Sarawak rights on its oil and gas under Chief Ministership of the late Adnan Satem escalated beyond the usual grumbling and dissatisfaction into a conflict between Sarawak and Federal Government.   

Earlier during Dato Najib’s administration, the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) was acknowledged with a cabinet joint committee established and chaired by former Foreign Minister Anifah Aman and Dato Nancy Shukri during Najib’s administration.

The passing of Taib, political undercurrent during Premier Abang Johari Openg, and demand to accelerate state economic development put greater pressure on the fulfillment of the terms of MA63 including the oil and gas rights. 

A misconduct by Petronas towards the East Malaysians angered the once cooperative state government. 

Instead of seeking a reasonable resolution, Petronas taken to their customary arrogant self and conflagrated the situation by being too cocksure the Production Development Act 1974 (PDA) will come to their favour.