Southeast Asia’s rice crisis is a ticking time bomb

Ensuring food security for the region and beyond requires urgent action to modernise agriculture, diversify suppliers and strengthen cooperation

Genevieve Donnellon-May

South China Morning Post 16 Feb 2025

In Southeast Asia, rice is more than just a food – it is the foundation of survival for almost 700 million people. But what happens when this lifeline begins to unravel? 

Climate change, economic pressures, limited arable land and water resources, and inefficient agricultural practices are threatening the region’s rice production, putting the future of hundreds of millions at risk.

The Philippines, a leading rice producer and the world’s largest importer, is already feeling the strain. On February 3, Manila declared a food security emergency in response to skyrocketing domestic rice prices. In response, the National Food Authority will release 300,000 tonnes of rice to stabilise prices.

The Philippines relies on imports despite its status as a major rice producer; imports covered more than a fifth of its domestic needs in 2023. This is because of shortfalls in production brought on by a range of issues including rising costs and extreme weather. Last year, rice imports hit a record 4.68 million tonnes, a 30 per cent year-on-year increase. About 75 per cent of imports came from Vietnam.

The crisis in the Philippines reflects broader challenges across Southeast Asia, a region responsible for almost 30 per cent of global rice production. Thailand and Vietnam dominate the region’s exports.

Rice cultivation in Southeast Asia increasingly faces economic, political and climatic pressures. The global rice shortage surpassed 8.5 million tonnes in 2023 – the largest since 2004 – driving up prices and weighing on household budgets.

The consequences are dire. Rice accounts for roughly 50 per cent of calorie intake in Southeast Asian diets, and agricultural production provides more than 10 per cent of the region’s economy. Rising prices have heightened fears of a food crisis, threatening to deepen poverty, hunger and malnutrition.

Why the global rice supply is in crisis

The interconnected nature of the region’s food systems means that one country’s crisis can quickly ripple across borders. This underscores the urgent need for sustainable solutions and regional cooperation to address these shared challenges. Several steps can be taken to ensure long-term food security in Southeast Asia.

First, countries must modernise agricultural practices to boost local production and strengthen national stockpiles. Adopting efficient farming technologies can help increase yields, even as climate change makes growing conditions more unpredictable. The urgency of this effort is evident in Thailand, the world’s second-largest rice exporter, where yields dropped by 3 to 6 per cent between 2023 and 2024, further driving up prices.

Lessons can be drawn from China, which has long prioritised food security and made significant strides in agricultural innovation. Chinese scientists have developed drought-resistant rice varieties that reduce water use by more than 40 per cent and cut methane emissions by at least 70 per cent. Recent breakthroughs in stress-tolerant rice, capable of thriving in saline soil, offer Southeast Asia a promising blueprint for enhancing crop resilience and ensuring a more stable supply of affordable rice for local consumption.

Second, stronger cooperation and trade within the region must be prioritised. By fostering closer ties among regional partners, exporters can bolster their economies while ensuring stable supplies for importers and consumers.

Indebted Thai farmers eye golden opportunity as price of rice rises globally

The Philippines, home to institutions such as the International Rice Research Institute, is well positioned to lead initiatives like establishing regional food research and development centres across Southeast Asia. These hubs could develop and test agricultural technologies, share best practices, run pilot programmes and provide policymakers with tailored solutions to local contexts and challenges.

The region is already moving to tackle the issue. At the 2023 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) meeting in Kuala Lumpur, members agreed to prioritise helping each other overcome rice supply shortages. Malaysia – the current Asean chair and a country which imports about 40 per cent of its rice needs – could support these efforts. Doing so would help strengthen the region’s capacity to adapt to climate change and other disruptions.

Third, Southeast Asian countries should diversify rice suppliers to mitigate supply chain risks and price fluctuations. By leveraging existing free-trade agreements and inter- and intraregional networks, Southeast Asia can tap into alternative exporters such as Pakistan and Brazil. Even Australia’s modest forecast of 518,000 tonnes of rice production could offer a valuable backup for the region during production shortfalls and export bans.

Major challenges remain. Limited access to cutting-edge technology, disparities in agricultural infrastructure, varying technological needs and resistance to new farming practices – driven by financial constraints and reliance on traditional methods – could hinder progress.

A new heat-resistant rice breed called “emihokoro” or “beaming smile” is seen planted at the government-run Saitama Agricultural Technology Centre in Kumagaya, Saitama prefecture, Japan, on August 7, 2024. Photo: Reuters

A new heat-resistant rice breed called “emihokoro” or “beaming smile” is seen planted at the government-run Saitama Agricultural Technology Centre in Kumagaya, Saitama prefecture, Japan, on August 7, 2024. Photo: Reuters

The impact of climate change is another key obstacle. As extreme weather becomes more frequent, the risk of multiple simultaneous crop failures across Southeast Asia increases. Such disruptions could force countries to rely more heavily on global markets while reducing their export capacity, potentially making them less willing to contribute to regional or national food reserves.

Greater intraregional trade raises concerns for major rice importers outside Southeast Asia. The region supplies 40 per cent of global rice exports and serves as a key supplier to Africa, the Middle East and beyond. If Southeast Asia prioritises its domestic needs and limits exports, importing regions could face severe shortages and price fluctuations. In more extreme cases, such shortages could escalate socio-economic and political tensions, further destabilising regions already struggling with food insecurity.

Southeast Asia’s rice crisis is a ticking time bomb. Immediate action is needed to modernise agriculture, diversify suppliers and strengthen regional cooperation to ensure long-term food security. The time to act is now.

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The situation is critical and had long been anticipated. More than 10 years ago, a friend, whose career was dedicated to padi farming, gave a heads up on the possibility Thailand may not be able to supply rice to Malaysia. 

The increase in rice prices, drought and unpredicatable weather, and crop failures by new padi planting initiatives should be area of concern. However, Malaysians are only concern with ensuring rice is available and cheaply for their consumption. Politicians merely seeking political mileage to drum up on the unavailable cheaper local rice.  

Generally indifferent to the reality that current price structure and buying practises of large millers (behind is rice concessionaire, BERNAS) are not conducive for rice farming to be sustainable and financially viable.   

The public, and government; both civil servants and political leadership, seemed not giving the food security - availability, reliability of supply, and ensuring food safety and nutritional requirement, a priority. Corruption, abuse of power and leakage in the industry are rampant. 

Urban population and generally the masses are indifferent to the problems in the rural agricultural sector or the looming rice crisis, thus making it challenging for government to undertake any drastic action to prioritise food security. 

If the public and civil servants could divert blame to the technically inadequate and perhaps, administratively inexperienced politicians, why would they be bothered?