Nurul is not his first as Yunos had earlier met and sought for Dr Mahathir's support. Though he has reservation over geography and the idea of ASEAN becoming a second United Nation, Mahathir was supportive of the present engagement with Bangladesh as dialogue partner or observer status in ASEAN Plus.
For almost a year, Bangladesh have been lobbying the original founding members of ASEAN, namely Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, and Malaysia. So the snide political remarks made towards Nurul is unfair and ill informed.
Strategic value
Bangladesh is more part of South Asia than South East Asia, but it borders Myanmar at the south and part of the Bay of Bengals. It offers maritime and overland access to India’s Northeast, and China, which would be valuable to ASEAN’s connectivity agenda.
The geograpical connectivity could bolster the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway and act as a logistical link between South and Southeast Asia.
As it is, Bangladesh is a member of BIMSTEC, and its economic corridors (especially via Chittagong Port) are already linked to Myanmar and Thailand—offering natural supply chain integration into ASEAN’s eastern frontier.
The georaphical reach is not a constrain to be part of any international body. Danny Liew argued in his Facebook that the 1955-77 regional defense organisation SEATO (or South East Asia Treaty Organisation) had non-South East Asian countries as in Pakistan, US, France, Australia, New Zealand, and Britain as members.
Bangladesh is already a dialogue partner of ASEAN, a party in Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), two-way trade reaching US$6.16 billion for 2023-24 and a significant player in the Asia Pacific region.
ASEAN-Bangladesh trade (≈US$25 billion in 2023) is currently underutilized; membership could expand market access and FDI inflow for both sides.
Bangladesh’s economy is rapidly growing, with consistent 6–7% GDP growth pre-COVID and is an investment destination for ASEAN member states. Its integration could enhance ASEAN’s regional value chains, particularly in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT-enabled services.
With over 170 million people, Bangladesh would become the third largest population in ASEAN after Indonesia and the Philippines.
As it is, ASEAN could boast as the third-most populous region in the world, following India and China with the population of the ten ASEAN member states is estimated at 670 to 680 million. India is 1.451 billion (2024) and China at 1.409 billion (2024).
The US and EU with only 340 million and 450 million, respectively for 2024 pales in comparison and puts the Asian and ASEAN region as a more attractive and prospective market than the two matured and on a decline regions.
Bangladesh offers a large, young labor force that is the demographic dividend to support ASEAN’s industrial competitiveness, particularly as the region looks to diversify from China-led manufacturing dependency.
Advantage to Bangla Desh
The main advantage of being part of ASEAN is economics and the prospects of broader economic integration and market access to ASEAN + RCEP. There is the enhanced geopolitical standing as part of a unified regional bloc.
Unfortunately the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is paralysed by conflicts between India and Pakistan and there is resentment from Delhi towards the youth revolt that deposed their ally, the former Bangladeshi leader, Sheikh Hassina.
In the Indian Express column by Syed Munir Khasru, South Asia is described as the least integrated region in the world with intra-regional trade accounting only 5% of total trade.
Rakid Al Hasan in his Daily Star column, "Bangladesh & ASEAN: A bridge too far?" wrote:
Bangladesh's foreign policy has long been characterised by the guiding principle of "friendship to all, malice towards none." Historically, this approach has resulted in an alliance structure heavily shaped by its reliance on India and its dependence on Western markets, particularly for its booming RMG industry.
However, as the geopolitical landscape has evolved, Bangladesh has recognised the need to reduce its over-reliance on these traditional allies and diversify its economic and strategic partnerships. ASEAN, with its dynamic economies, strategic location, and integrated market, represents an attractive alternative.For Bangladesh, the rationale behind this pivot is multifaceted. The global economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, and Bangladesh's reliance on Western markets for exports, primarily textiles, has made the country vulnerable to shifting trade dynamics and economic volatility.
The growth trajectories of ASEAN economies offer new trade opportunities, and its collective GDP of over $3 trillion presents a significant opportunity for Bangladesh to tap into vibrant markets. Furthermore, ASEAN's focus on regional integration aligns well with Bangladesh's economic priorities, which include expanding foreign investment, increasing exports, and developing its infrastructure.
Dakka's membership into ASEAN is an opportunity to diversify partnerships beyond India and China and offers a better platform to advocate its interests on issues such as regional security, climate change, labor migration, and Rohingya repatriation.
Moreover, Bangladesh's pursuit of ASEAN membership is complicated by the unresolved Rohingya crisis, which could further strain its relations with some ASEAN members. Myanmar, a full member of ASEAN, has been a staunch opponent of Bangladesh's efforts to repatriate the Rohingya refugees currently living in Bangladesh.
The ongoing political tensions over the Rohingya crisis could create significant friction within ASEAN, especially as Myanmar could oppose Bangladesh's accession to the bloc in retaliation for its criticism of Myanmar's handling of the crisis. The complex nature of ASEAN's decision-making process, which requires unanimous approval from all members, means that this could be a major stumbling block for Bangladesh's aspirations to join the organisation.
Dakka have applied for full membership in ASEAN since 2020 and the personal rapport between Anwar and Yunus is an opportunity Bangladesh is hoping to capitalise. However, it could be a long ardous process. East Timor applied in 2011, secured observer status in 2020, and still awaiting ascension to full membership.
Political stability is of primary importance because since Myanmar membership, ASEAN had to saddle the lingering political instability. Bangladesh is still in a political transition since the youth-led coup to topple the India-backed Sheikh Hassina. To quote from South China Morning Post August 1st report here,
Bangladesh has been under an unelected interim government led by Yunus since August last year, after a wave of student-led protests ousted former prime minister Sheikh Hasina. The country’s main opposition party has cautioned that instability and public “resentment” may intensify if elections – postponed by Yunus until 2026 – are not held by December.
There is also the concern for Islamist resurgence in Bangladesh, in which 36 Bangladeshi were arrested for alleged ties with Islamic state terrorist outfit recruiting members to fight in Syria and for IS. It will have implication on India's regional strategy and ASEAN security against militancy.
Geopolitical implication
In addition to the potential stumbling block from Myanmar for the junta reluctance to allow the 1 million repatriation of Rohingya in Bangladesh, the geopolitical implications to Bangladesh membership need to take account of India's strategic culculus.
India may welcome Bangladesh's deeper integration with ASEAN as part of its “Act East” policy, provided it does not erode New Delhi’s influence. On the other hand, India might be cautious if ASEAN becomes a vehicle for Chinese economic encroachment into Bangladesh, especially via Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure.
Bangladesh is in a sensitive maritime zone—the Bay of Bengal and near the Malacca Strait chokepoint.
Strategically, Bangladesh's ASEAN membership would give the group a larger maritime footprint in the Indian Ocean. And, it could increase the scope of ASEAN-led forums like the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) or ADMM-Plus to cover more of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
China is already a top investor in Bangladesh and its membership in ASEAN could be viewed as an extension of China’s indirect leverage inside ASEAN, especially as Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia already lean toward Beijing.
ASEAN may tread cautiously to preserve its unity and neutrality in the intensifying US-China rivalry.
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