Chip war and volatile semicon market: Will it affect Malaysia?

Back in June 2024, business media was prepping the market and public with optimism on the back of stellar performance of the Malaysian semiconductor industry. Maybank's blog report started with the opening line:

Amidst persistent geo-political tensions, Malaysia's semiconductor industry stands as a beacon of growth, poised to seize a substantial share of the global market, projected to reach a staggering USD$588 billion with a 13% growth trajectory this year.

A lecturer and Senior Manager for InvestPerak was all praises for the National Semiconductor Strategy announced by Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim at an event that month. 

However, off-late tech stocks have been taken a beating in the market on Wall Street and Bursa Malaysia since the Yen carry trade driven sell-off early in the month. For one, the incumbent darling semiconductor stocks, Intel having been on a reversal trend to the other rising semiconductor stocks. 

The new darling, Nvidia have taken a tumble due to some anti-trust issues, a usual front for corporate battle in the US. 

In addition, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are campaigning to revive manufacturing sector in the US to compliment the sanction strategy imposed on China. The globalisation promoted by Clinton and Obama doing a reverse due to geopolitics. 

This could have an impact on Malaysia and the layoff by Intel Penang, though an Intel problem, is seen by certain business and stock investor as prequel to a pullout.   

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YTL do not qualify for Johor's ART and other PPP projects

ART prototype in Kuching

On Monday September 9th, Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim unveiled PIKAS 2030 or Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Masterplan, It aims to boost governance and management of projects under PPP framework or in the decades used parlance, privatisation.  

There will be more competitive bidding, transparent and merit-based to ensure good governance, free from corruption, and high standard of management. The "whole nation" approach will be used to build a progressive nation approach for all.

Taking that into account, then companies with a poor track record of governance, having their past unraveled and implicated in court cases should not be allowed to participate in any PPP projects. 

Any  application and bid put on hold pending investigation or revelation in court proceeding. Only then PMX seriousness for governance not taken lightly. One such company is YTL. 

YTL's bid for Johor's ART or MyHSR should not be considered, especially with the age old 1Bestari.net controversy is a hot conversation on social media and among the knowledgeable public. 

Their takeover of Ranhill should be reviewed by UKAS and government.

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Fed Chairman should be fired for leading US economy to recession

President Reagan's former Economic Adviser, renown American economist Prof Steve Hank expressed his dismay with the inability of the present Federal Chairman Jeremy Powell in handling the inflation problem.

It is likely to steer the economy towards a recession. View this podcast as he lamented Powell is not economically trained but as Wikipedia revealed he is a lawyer with political science as his first degree.

Political skill and being legalistic for consensus building is not the right qualification. His expertise must be in the subject matter and like the legendary Paul Volcker, Fed Chairman should have economic instinct to anticipate economic development.

Thought only Malaysia is obsessed to place those in the supporting role of organisations such as lawyers and accountants in leading roles as CEO or Chairman.

From yesterday's Trump-Harris debate, Trump's idea of effective leadership is to fire the incompetence. Fed Chairman have been warned thus should be fired. 

In the meanwhile, market is jttery with the prospect of recession in the US. Star Online published the following Bloomberg report yesterday:

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While Trump-Harris still debating, analyst expect Malaysia benefit a Trump win

They are still slugging it out live in Philadelphia on ABC News. In the meanwhile, a Fund Manager shared the following impact of a Trump Presidency in brief: 

Potential impact of Trump Presidency 2.0 on trade 

➡️ Trump is suggesting universal tariff of 10% for all goods imported to US

➡️ Trump is also suggesting tariff for imported China goods of 60%

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Kamala predicted to win, What to expect?

Four days ago, the renown election predictor Prof Allan Lichtman was reported below by USA Today:

WASHINGTON - Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has made his guess on who will reclaim the White House this year.

Spoiler alert: it’s Vice President Kamala Harris.

Lichtman said in a video, first reported by The New York Times, that he based his prediction on thirteen keys or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.”

Read on HERE. 

Kamala Harris is still tie with Donald Trump in a recent poll at the must win swing state of Pennsylvania.

Since we did an article on possibility of a Trump win, Lichtman's prediction made it necessary to analysis the possible policies of Kamala and its effect on the region. 

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UMNO need to find its relevance

In the Barisan Nasional circle, often discussed in conversations is the relevance of MCA. 

Till the next political shift, majority of Chinese voters are backing DAP to represent them. MCA is left with two seats in Malay-majority Parliamentary constituencies. Meanwhile, barring anything untowards, MIC is left with only the Deputy President's Tapah seat.

Be that as it may, the future is not so assured for UMNO as well and the caution was thrown at the recent UMNO General Assembly. The surprise win at the Nenggiri by-election and confidence leading to the Bukit Mahkota by-election does not assure a lasting one. 

Though Zahid meant as BN would be deemed irrelevant should PH form a unity government with PN after GE15, UMNO's relevance has entered the vocabulary. 

They cannot fail to reinvent themselves and find the right positioning in today's politics. 

Joceline Tan still see a bleak future for UMNO as she dwelled on the future leadership of the party. In a feudel party like UMNO, weightage on leadership as the determinant of success is more. 

Such is it that there is a faint hope for Najib to revive the party. By the time he finally get released and back in mainstream politics, will the channel of young voters that threw him out not in their prime and generational change politics has taken place?  

Its happening everywhere. That the diehards refused to face the eventuality.    

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Merdeka and Nation building: Ideological or practical?

Every year during the Merdeka to Malaysia Day celebration, one will hear the repeated debate over the date of Merdeka, Merdeka is only for the Peninsular states, and this year, a new debate: Is it National Day or Merdeka Day?

From the Sabah and Sarawak side, a new one surfaced. A history Professor claim their independence is sometime in 1945. Jeffrey Kitingan used the occasion to rant over addressing Sabah as a state. More to be heard approaching Malaysia Day.  

Oh boy, good thing Johoreans did not bother to gloat of their history of never formerly a colony of Britain. As sovereign, it had embassies abroad in as far away as European capitals. 

These are all talking of the past. Needed is introspection into the present and set foresight for the future. Being correct merely gives a false sense of national or state or racial pride. 

Its a matter of different forms, but the reality was all states in Semenanjong, Sabah and Sarawak were British colonies. All were poor! 

Better be practical and address the problems of nation building.

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