Trump 2nd Presidency: Impact on Malaysia

In the midst of local and international attention to Anwar Ibrahim's announcement of Malaysia applying to join BRICS during the commemuration of 50-year Malaysia-China diplomatic relation, there was concern on its impact on Malaysia's E&E sector. 

Immediately, MOSTI Minister Chang Lih Kang came out with a word of comfort citing it will not effect the sector and Malaysia's neutrality is cited as the reason. He said Malaysia's motivation to join BRICS is for the economics mutual benefit as if to tone down the dedollarisation motivation. 

The celebration remains on going with an exhibition at a major shopping complex. Its obviously a major charm exercise by Anwar to win China's heart. 

Not to be seen too obvious, especially on the BRICS, which in a matter of a month, Russian Foreign Minister came to visit Malaysia, Tengku Zafrul reminded that Malaysia is also part of OECD. Neutrality was also mentioned by Tengku Zafrul in his speech to his Ministry on July 18th. 

The elephant in the room is the possibility of Donald Trump returning to White House. He anticipate Trump to renew trade war against China and there will be a massive wave of relocation that will benefit Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.  

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Annuar Musa, kerajaan PAS dalang geran peneroka Kesedar lambat

Jika dahulu PAS memainkan naratif menentang Assobiyah, kini mereka pula yang mahu kelihatan lebih Melayu sambil melaungkan Islam terancam. Namun hakikatnya sebalik kerana Gua Musang dan daerah Hulu Kelantan merupakan contoh jelas naratif PAS hari ini hanya suatu kemunafiqan.  

Sejak 1964 hingga ke hari dan kini masih berterusan meleluas, ratusan ribu ekar tanah begitu mudah "jatuh" ke tangan syarikat-syarikat orang luar dan asing tetapi program penyerahan geran tanah kepada anak tempatan khususnya Kesedar begitu susah sekali diselesaikan oleh kerajaan negeri.

Kerajaan negeri yang ditadbir PAS adalah kuasa penentu untuk geran-geran tanah ditukar nama kepada pemilik yang ditujukan. Hal ini diperakui sendiri oleh MB Kelantan, namun pihak kerajaan PAS hanya mempolitikkan. 

Bagi peneroka-peneroka program Kesedar, mereka hanya mahu urusan ini diselesaikan segera tanpa pelbagai alasan-alasan.

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Ratusan ribu ekar tanah Gua Musang jatuh ke "orang asing"

Penyelewengan tanah oleh kerajaan PAS Kelantan khususnya di Gua Musang adalah sesuatu yang telah berlaku berdekad-dekad lamanya lebih dari 60 tahun dan masih terus berleluasa hingga ke hari ini.

Pada tahun 2012, blog pro-BN, Pisau.net mendedahkan kerajaan negeri memberikan tanah balak seluas 10,526 hektar di Gua Musang yang bernilai RM30 juta kepada sebuah syarikat kepunyaan pemimpin DAP, Datok Ngeh Koo Ham. Walaupun dinafikan ketika itu oleh Fadhli Shaari, pemberian tersebut rahsia umum sebagai imbuhan untuk DAP bersetuju menerima Datuk Seri Nizar Jamaluddin dilantik  Menteri Besar Perak selepas pilihanraya umum 2008.

Sebaik mengambilalih pentadbiran Kelantan dari tahun 1990, timbul skandal Ladang Rakyat yang membabitkan tanah seluas 80,000 hektar. Berselindung disebalik program untuk membasmi kemiskinan untuk 4,000 penduduk di daerah Hulu Kelantan kawasan Gua Musang, tanah dipejak ke syarikat-syarikat luar yang mana menjadi habuan untuk pemimpin-pemimpin PAS. 

Ketika pertama kali memerintah Kelantan sepanjang tahun 1964 ke pertengahan 1975, blog Taiping Mali mendedahkan "Kerajaan PAS Kelantan telah menyerahkan hak milik tanah seluas lebih 300,000 ekar secara pajakan kepada sebuah syarikat dari Singapura." Syarikat yang dimaksudkan didedahkan blog Bro Jinggo sebagai Timber & Mine Industrial Corporation. 

Kini timbul pula skandal-skandal tanah yang baru seperti berikut:   

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Congestion on the Straits of Malacca sea lane

An extract from the Port Economics, Management and Policy website reads below:

Due to geography, geopolitics, and trade flows, specific locations play a strategic role in the global maritime network. They are labeled as chokepoints and can be classified into two main categories:

• Primary chokepoints. The most important is that they offer limited cost-effective maritime shipping alternatives, which would seriously impair global trade if disrupted. The first type of chokepoints concerns connectors along major oceans and seas. Among those are the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Malacca, which are key locations in the global trade of goods and commodities. The closure of these bottlenecks would force the diversion of maritime traffic over long distances with the associated loss of time and capacity. 

Of late, the Panama Canal is running dry and water is at critically low level for the waterway to operate. The lack of rain due to the El Nino phenomenon has resulted in the second driest season in the canal's 110 year history. [read BBC here]. 

According to IMF blog, Panama Canal saw trade fell by 32% in the early part of 2024. Larger still is Suez Canal, by 50%. Since late December 2023, Suez Canal and Red Sea are under threat. Houthi rebels from Yemen attacked ships in response Israel's bombardment of Gaza and so-called retaliation to Hamas rocket attacks. 

Ships were diverted through the Cape of Good Hope and it added 6,000 nautical miles to journey. Situation may worsen with Israel seemed destined to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon and the possible confrontation with Iran. 

If that is not problematic enough for international trade, the Straits of Melaka recently faced a massive congestion.  

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Yen-led Black Monday: The end of Pax Americana?

According to market watchers, the Black Monday few days ago was sparked by a squeeze on carry trade, a similar arbitrage trading strategy used in the 1997 attack on Ringgit which Mahathir conveniently picked on George Soros. 

Reuters reported on Tuesday:  

The U.S. dollar was nursing steep losses on Tuesday, with the yen on the back foot after a sharp rise in the previous session as traders contend with unwinding of popular carry trades and the prospect of deep rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

The yen was weaker on Tuesday at 144.47 per dollar, after rising for five straight sessions and touching a seven-month high of 141.675 on Monday. The yen was also lower against the Australian dollar, euro and sterling.

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Financial markets entering the witching hours

Witching hour is the time of night, usually between 3 to 4 am, whereby supernaturals of witches, demons and ghosts roam and at their most powerful. 

In our days trading in the financial markets, the 3 to 4 am refers to the period around the third and fourth quarter of the year when market is most volatile and turmoil in the market usually happen before the period of low trading volume during Christmas to New Year. 

By the look of it, the global financial market is entering the witching period of the year. There was a sell-off on Wall Street last week arising from a poor job data which indicate recession is coming in.  

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In support of Auditor General, Wan Suraya

Its not that certain commentator didn't get it when the latest Auditor General report was brushed aside as "same sorry stories about the civil service: wastage of public funds, inefficiency, profligacy, incompetence and dishonesty" that will eventually be forgotten in public sphere. 

Perhaps he is right since the issues raised by the Auditor General that was hot in July has quietened down in the media. Well, he failed to realise the report started to gain attention from its initial release in March. 

Maybe there was no heads up to alert the commentator that the report is not merely about the RM42 billion cost of projects being audited, or 64 recommendations to the government, or open secrets known over last few years of misappropriation such as the HRDC finally came to surface. 

It's also not about last year appointed and impressive 29 years resume of Auditor General, Dato Wan Suraya's second Auditor Report release of fully her own. The report was lauded by Tan Sri Azman Hashim for its out of the ordinary independence and transparent. 

Its about her tasking "to transform and restructure the auditing system and strengthen the country's financial management".

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