The economy of Thailand have been sluggish lately, but not its politics.
One view is the economic malaise was due to Pita Limjaroenrat being denied to lead the government and his party, Moving Forward Party (MFP), which won the majority in last year's Thai general election by campaigning for the repeal of Lese Majeste law, was disbanded by the Consitutional Court.
Its alleged that Pita is supported by the US for his liberal democracy agenda and in retaliation, the economy suffered for denying his victory.
However, Thailand is of interest not for the politics but for the attention of Anwar Ibrahim for meeting twice in a month his Thai countepart, Srettha Thavisin.
From current, Srettha turned former Prime Minister over the weekend. Replacing him is Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37 year old daughter of deposed former Prime Minister and de facto leader of the red shirt movement, Thaksin Sinawatra.
Her premiership makes for interesting observation as to whether the former policemen, and businessmen before becoming Prime Minister still wield influence behind the scene in the running of the country.
In a 2016 interview, Thaksin said he is no threat and the "generals worry to much". but already he expressed willingness to offer advise to the young new Prime Minister. Thaksin was deposed for being critical of the establishment but his party now has turned pro-monarchy.
Ironically, Thaksin's trial for Lese Majeste charges commenced yesterday. Interesting isn't it?
Star Online reported:Court begins Thaksin hearing
Thailand
Tuesday, 20 Aug 2024
On trial: Thaksin arriving at the Criminal Court in Bangkok. — AFP
FORMER Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra appeared in a Bangkok court as it began scrutinising evidence in a royal insult case against him, just days after his daughter became the South-East Asian nation’s new prime minister.
Thaksin, accompanied by his lawyers, went into the court clad in a yellow shirt, a colour that symbolises loyalty to the monarchy. His court appearance yesterday came a day after he received a royal amnesty that ended his commuted one-year sentence in corruption cases, allowing him to walk free two weeks earlier than the end of his parole.
The two-time former prime minister, and de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai party, was indicted in June by prosecutors under the lese majeste law that protects the royal family from criticism and a cybercrime law.
“There’s not much to it,” Thaksin said to reporters when he arrived at the court. “This case came about shortly after the coup so it’s about the coup-makers using the law to tighten power.”
The charges against Thaksin, 75, stemmed from an interview he gave in Seoul in 2015 in the wake of a coup that dislodged his sister’s government a year earlier. Prosecutors deemed his comments to have breached Article 112 of Thailand’s penal code, which carries a maximum jail term of 15 years for each offence of defaming the monarchy.
Thaksin is out on bail but has been barred from travelling outside the country without the court’s permission.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter, on Friday won the parliamentary vote to become Thailand’s new prime minister.
Paetongtarn was picked for the premier post after the country’s Constitutional Court dismissed Srettha Thavisin in an ethics violation case, cutting his time in office to only less than a year.
Thaksin returned to Thailand from a 15-year exile the same day Srettha became the prime minister last year – events seen as part of a deal that the former leader cut with the royalist establishment to help pro-military and conservative parties stay in power after nearly a decade of military-backed rule under a former army chief.
The truce brought an end to the conflict that had shaped Thai politics for the past two decades. But Srettha’s dismissal and the lese majeste persecution against Thaksin have raised fresh questions if the agreement would really hold. — Bloomberg
The controversial cabinet appointee that led to the collapse of Srettha's one year old government was Thaksin's former lawyer.
An associate Professor had long expected Thaksin will not be jail for long upon his return.
True enough. Interesting outcome of the Lese Majeste trial awaits
In the meanwhile, Pita's party disbanded and his MPs moved to launch a new political party. He is ban from politics for few years but has expressed hope for his youth inspired "reformasi" despite the limitation of Thai democrasy.
Since Malaysia has interest in the happening in Thailand for future collaboration, what to make out of the latest political development in our neighbour up north?
Phillip Golingai of The Star wrote over the weekend:
Politics on a loop
By Philip Golingai
It's Just Politics
Sunday, 18 Aug 2024
Happier days: Paetongtarn (left) and Srettha taking a selfie at a campaign event last year. — AFP
POLITICAL events in Thailand over the last few days have given me a strong sense of deja vu.
I’ve been covering the Land of Smiles since 2006, when I was posted in Bangkok for about four years as The Star’s correspondent.
My stint was eventful right from the start: Just a few days after settling in in an apartment in suburban Bangkok, on the night of Sept 19, I received a call saying there had been a coup d’etat. I got to the offices of The Nation newspaper where I was based in a few minutes – luckily, because it was quickly surrounded by soldiers.
“Don’t be afraid. They are friendly forces,” a Thai journalist supporting the yellow shirts said.
At that time, Thailand was divided between the yellow shirts, a pro-establishment movement that opposed then prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and the red shirts who supported Thaksin.
That night, the Royal Thai Army ousted Thaksin, of the Thai Rak Thai party which had never lost an election. Thaksin was in New York City for a United Nations General Assembly at the time.
Fast forward to August 2024.
On Aug 7, Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolved the Move Forward Party, which won the most seats at the 2023 general elections.
On Aug 14, it removed prime minister Srettha Thavisin from Pheu Thai, the second reincarnation of Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai.
On Aug 16, the Thai Parliament elected its youngest ever Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who is Thaksin’s daughter, and a leader of Pheu Thai.
If I were to rewind Thailand’s political history for the last 18 years, I would have covered/observed the three recent events. The only difference is the names of the parties and the prime minister.
Take the dissolution of the Move Forward Party. It is a reincarnation of Future Forward, which was dissolved and had its executive committee members barred from politics in 2020.
The disbanded Move Forward was reborn as the People’s Party. Over 140 Move Forward MPs joined the party, the second reincarnation of Future Forward.
What happened to Future Forward, which morphed into Move Forward, which transformed into the People’s Party, is deja vu, as it had happened to Thai Rak Thai.
(By the way, I love the party’s name, as “rak” means love, so Thai Rak Thai means “Thai Loves Thai”.)
Eight months after the military ousted Thaksin in 2006, the Constitutional Court dissolved Thai Rak Thai and banned 111 party leaders from participating in politics for five years. The party was then reincarnated as the People’s Power Party.
However, history repeated, and the Constitutional Court dissolved the People’s Power Party in September 2007. The party was reborn as Pheu Thai, which means “For Thais”.
More deja vu: Srettha is the fourth Thai prime minister in 16 years to be removed by the Constitutional Court. One of them was Somchai Wongsawa, the brother-in-law of deposed prime ministers Thaksin and Thaksin’s sister Yingluck. In December 2008, Somchai stepped down as PM after the Constitutional Court banned him from office.
The third deja vu point are the political events of the last few days: There’s a Shinawatra as Prime Minister again.
The 37-year-old Paetongtarn is the daughter of Thaksin, the niece of former Yingluck, and the niece-in-law of Somchai.
And then there’s the military coup.
In 2014, Yingluck faced the same fate as her brother. The military seized power and ousted her as PM. Since the 2006 military coup, the establishment has failed to eliminate the Shinawatra influence in Thai politics. In the 18 years since then, the family has produced four prime ministers.
Malaysians have asked me why Thailand’s politics seems to be caught in an endless loop. I believe it’s because Thaksin, despite living in exile for about two decades after the 2006 coup, is still politically relevant.
In the 2023 elections, Pheu Thai, led by Paetongtarn, won the second most number of seats, 141, while Move Forward won 151.
What we saw in Thailand then was the fight between Thaksin and the establishment. However, in the last election, it looked like the two sides that had been fighting ever since the divisive red shirt vs yellow shirt battles erupted came to a compromise.
“Establishment” is a code word in Thailand referring to the military, bureaucracy, and the ultimate powerful institution that comprise the power players. In the late 2000s, Thais whispered about this institution when I had private chats with them. It was a taboo subject.
But now, the whispers have turned into public protests in the streets of Thailand. The ballot boxes in last year’s elections were filled with loud voices of protest as the progressive Move Forward party won the most seats.
So it seems that the People’s Party is facing off against the establishment, which now includes its former enemy, Thaksin.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s big task is to keep the Shinawatra party – Pheu Thai – relevant to voters. Meanwhile, the People’s Party needs to maintain its momentum of popularity, especially among young urban voters who want to rid their country of the establishment.
Can Thailand break the loop?
Some think that in the next Thai election, the People’s Party, the reincarnation of Move Forward and Future Forward, will win more seats as young voters become angrier with the establishment.
But cynics tell me the establishment can still use the old playbook: a military coup or a judicial coup.
It will be deja vu, again.
In The Diplomat's article, "What Thaksin Shinawatra's Parole say about Thai Politics", it viewed Thaksin's red shirt as useful to the power establishment aligned to the monarchy and military to counter the rising threat of reform driven MFP.
Excerpt below:
There may be additional skirmishes yet to come – a lese-majeste charge from 2016 is still hanging over Thaksin’s head – but it is clear that a truce has been called and a new defensive line established.
To be sure, it may take Thai politics some time to catch up to such a sudden recalibration of alliances. As I noted yesterday, Thaksin’s parole has been opposed by figures on both sides of the Thai political spectrum: both royalist conservatives, who have struggled to accept the rehabilitation of a leader that they opposed for so many years, and progressives, who have complained about unequal treatment for the wealthy former leader. Opponents of the decision have promised to hold additional protests against the Justice Department’s decision.
Above all, the parole decision points to the ongoing politicization of the Thai legal and administrative system, and extends its long series of interventions into Thai politics on the side of elite interests.
As for Malaysia, Institute for Security & Development Policy 2023 article entitled "The Past Holds Clues to Thailand’s Foreign Policy under Pheu Thai" is a hint of what is to come.
Thaksin was an advisor of the private equity firm, the Carlyle Group in which its roll call of advisers include former US President George Bush Sr and former British Prime Minister, John Major.
On the other hand, the descendent of Hakka immigrant was quoted in a journal as "widely credited with initiating a major shift in Thai politics by mobilizing ethnic Chinese and shifting Thailand toward Beijing."
Like Malaysia, Thailand too is doing a balancing act between BRICS and OECD.
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