The latest stories this morning on the US election indicate Kamala Harris losing ground, and Donald Trump pulls even on the poll. Forbes reported all 6 battleground states are neck to neck with Trump apparently leading Pennsylvania.
Local Malaysian bar room political soothsayers been telling all along not to believe a woman and more so, Black and Asian descent will ever make US President. At the final stretch, skin colour will be the deciding factor, they claimed.
Well, Dean from the tiktok of Alexis and Dean have taken the safe view that it is a 50:50 situation three days ago. Both Harris and Trump's campaign team have been taking the attitude it will be down to the wire. Do not read too much into the poll. Hillary had the poll in her favour, but lost the electoral college count.
In the meanwhile, Forbes reported Trump's tariff could pull the S&P down by 10%. The Forbes report below:
TOPLINE The tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump would pose a major headwind to stocks globally, according to a report from UBS investment bank examining the impact of several scenarios for equities heading into November’s U.S. election.
KEY FACTS
The joint analysis from UBS economists and strategists, including its chief U.S. economist Jonathan Pingle and chief U.S. strategist Jonathan Golub, forecasted that if the U.S. implements the 60% import tax on Chinese goods and 10% tariff on other imports backed by Trump, the S&P 500 would end next year at 5,200 and 2026 at 5,650, accounting for any retaliatory policies from U.S. trade partners via a bottom-up model imputing the impacts of such a trade war.
Those are 11% and 2% respective declines from the benchmark U.S. stock index’s record Wednesday close of 5,792 (the S&P has gained a median of 13% annually over the last 20 years, according to FactSet).
The tariff-related pain would be felt more intensely by investors in equities abroad, with the bank estimating Europe’s Stoxx 600 index would decline 14% by the end of next year and still be down 13% by the end of 2026 and the MSCI China index would fall 11% by the end of 2025 and remain 7% below its current level by 2026.
The extreme tariff scenario, which may “constrain competitiveness” as trade moves less freely, would cause global gross domestic output growth to slow to 2.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, weaker than the 2.9% economic expansion forecasted by UBS in both years in a baseline scenario.
UBS’ baseline scenario calls for the S&P to end 2025 at 6,400 (up 10% from Wednesday’s high) and 6,850 (up 18%), forecasting double-digit percentage gains for European and Chinese stocks over the next two years as well.
How Would Stocks Perform If Republicans Or Democrats Sweep?
UBS also laid out S&P price targets for if either party wins the presidency and a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Both outcomes call for stocks to finish lower than a baseline scenario in which there’s a divided federal government – perhaps a reflection of the highly divergent economic policies laid out on the campaign trail – though a Republican sweep is viewed more favorably (see chart below). The UBS group identified corporate tax cuts and deregulation as a boost under a Republican sweep and corporate tax rate increases as a drag on stocks in a Democratic sweep, though the latter would be the “best” for European and emerging market stocks due to less risk tied to hawkish U.S. trade policies.
KEY BACKGROUND
American stocks performed remarkably well under both Trump and President Joe Biden. The S&P returned 83% while Trump was in office, besting the MSCI World Index’s 70% gain and 59% during Biden’s first 45 months, trouncing the MSCI global index’s 45% rally. Economist consensus views the aggressive tariff policy as inflationary and a tailwind for U.S. economic growth, though Trump touts the policy as a way to boost domestic manufacturing and job growth. Next month’s election is one of several concerns on the minds of investors, including a mixed labor market, lingering inflation and an uncertain path of monetary policy, even as stocks continue notching new records. Republicans narrowly control the House and Democrats narrowly control the Senate. The Decision Desk HQ and The Hill’s polling model narrowly favors Republicans to win both chambers.
Derek Saul is a New Jersey-based Senior Reporter on Forbes' news team.
Interesting ... is Wall Street promoting Harris by throwing doubt and fear to the usually Republican friendly corporate people?
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