MAGA at the expense of stagnant global economy

On the UNCTAD website, the October 29th 2024 article expressed concern for global stagnation as the title reads: "Global growth stagnates at 2.7%, too weak to curb inequality, climate change and discontent". 

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projects global economic growth to stagnate at 2.7% in 2024 and 2025, marking a sustained drop from the 3% annual average seen between 2011 and 2019 and well below the 4.4% average in the years before the 2008 financial crisis.

The organization’s Trade and Development Report 2024 warns that this new “low normal" growth is insufficient to tackle pressing development and climate goals or help ease widespread discontent amidst a global cost-of-living crisis that has left many households in vulnerable positions.

As early as January 2024, Brooking Institute projected global growth to slow down before possibly edging up in for 2025. Five factors anticipated to contribute to the slowdown; rising geopolitical tension, China's economic slowdown, surging financial stress, trade fragmentation, and climate change.

Then Trump and his MAGA movement won the Presidential election in early November 2024 out of the realisation that slowdown in technological progress led to stagnation in their living standard. The economic warpath to revive its economy will come at the expense of developing economies. An uncertain future awaits ....    

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Did Ismail Sabri got kickback for Dubai World Expo appearance?

Despite talk of his uncertain health condition, former Prime Minister Ismail Sabri was seen arriving at the MACC this morning to record his statement in relation to investigation for corruption and money laundering allegations. 

Four persons were remanded including Ismail's former political secretaries. Cash RM170 million and gold bars found at safehouses, presumably at the homes of his former officers. MACC confirmed 13 of Ismail's accounts with RM9.33 million forfeited. 

UMNO made two statements to deny any link to the seized money and pre-empting any possible claim the money is "political fund raising" for GE15. Obviously, no money handed to UMNO and gold bar serve no purpose in political campaign. 

It is believed Ismail and former UMNO Secretary General, Annuar Musa were building a political war chest of their own. This leads to the incident Ismail's uninvited appearance at the Dubai World Expo 2020 and talk he met estranged Serba Dinamik CEO Abdul Karim Abdullah. 

Focus M wrote of the visit in 2022:

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"Trump"-triggered market crash, recession, and global systemic collapse

The current conversation in local bourse is what is the new and constantly changing support level as market plunge on two straight days of Wall Street crash.

Trump's tariff war on Canada last night saw him ordered for 50% retaliatory tariff on Canadian steel and alumnium for Dow Jones reeled down by 450 points. A day earlier, his mention of the R word for recession sent it crashing by almost 900 points.  

For Malaysia, it is already 20 weeks of market decline due to foreign investors pulling out. It is most worrisome for a market that have yet to have a bull run since 2014. The buzzword is recession and recession triggered volatility. There is none of the expected "Trump bump", but sell-off every time he speaks and its economic impact. 

The conversation has shifted to beyond conversation on market crash and recession, but systematic global collapse. What is to come of Malaysia? 

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No more Petronas: More taxes to come?

Anwar Ibrahim claimed the Petros-Petronas spat is resolved. There is no resolution on how Petros and Petronas will be cooperating together in projects such as the cancelled Lang Lebah fields. It is the usual safe statement to contain any conflict from worsening and buy time for a resolution. No lying there. 

Need to repeat it again, the problem could have been avoided had Petronas been mindful of the increasing sensitivity of MA63 in Sabah and Sarawak, admit their fault and discontinue the grave "mistakes" committed, and not acted arrogantly. 

Given the fiscal constrain of the Federal Government to reduce subsidy, large expenditure for government salary and pension, and low tax collection, Petronas exacerbated the financial situation presently worsening due to the current global economic and trade turmoil. 

Petronas have been rushing to expedite Najib-era initiated "reimagined" new path on the possibility oil could either dry up or the industry is no more ESG acceptable to financiers. Its CEO recently raised the  bleak possibility of Petronas may not exist in 10 years. Latest net profit for 2024 of RM55.1 billion is a shrinkage by 32% rom 2023. It has been falling since 2021.

Its a global trend! 

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Government funded political campaign without wasteful poster war?

Anwar Ibrahim stressed on economic reform over institution or political reform. 

Given the current economic situation, demand on the national coffer is endless but contribution into the fund getting challenging. Livelihood should take precedent over high-falluting ideals. 

If there is any reform that need expediting, political funding would be one. Anwar's expressed willingness to do so in November last year.   

This blogger is in sync but not so much for the need of a framework to govern political funding as expressed by C7, but more for the reason expressed by the Minister in the Prime Minister's Department (Law and Institutional Reform), Datuk Seri Azalina Othman Said to mitigate corruption risks.  

According to Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) Chief Commissioner, Tan Sri Azam Baki, policy development for the Political Financing Bill is on going and the bill slated for tabling in Parliament in 2026. 

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Petros-Petronas spat is far from resolve

Upon the demise of Allahyarham Tun Pehin Seri Taib Mahmud in February 2024, open and frank conversation over Sarawak rights on its oil and gas under Chief Ministership of the late Adnan Satem escalated beyond the usual grumbling and dissatisfaction into a conflict between Sarawak and Federal Government.   

Earlier during Dato Najib’s administration, the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) was acknowledged with a cabinet joint committee established and chaired by former Foreign Minister Anifah Aman and Dato Nancy Shukri during Najib’s administration.

The passing of Taib, political undercurrent during Premier Abang Johari Openg, and demand to accelerate state economic development put greater pressure on the fulfillment of the terms of MA63 including the oil and gas rights. 

A misconduct by Petronas towards the East Malaysians angered the once cooperative state government. 

Instead of seeking a reasonable resolution, Petronas taken to their customary arrogant self and conflagrated the situation by being too cocksure the Production Development Act 1974 (PDA) will come to their favour. 

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Beyond court and the law, but honour of the Malay rulers

Few days ago, social media went viral on news Dato Seri Ismail Sabri fainted and photo viral of him sleeping in hospital. At the same time, news circulated of four of his former staff at PMO remanded for investigation for alleged corruption or money laundering involving more than RM100 million. 

The investigation came to light days prior to the above assembly organised by the state government of Pahang, blessed with doa by the state Mufti and to be graced by Sultan Abdullah's attendance. There were whispering of Ismail's involvement and countless planning and discussion held in Dubai to eventually led to the event. 

It led political pundits to speculate the investigation was to foil the event and Ismail's hospitalisation was merely an act. However, its just a spurious coincident and apparently the investigation have been on-going awaiting an organisation reshuffle to initiate the pounce. The names appeared in the court database and have since been released.

Nevertheless, one could presume the assembly tomorrow relate with the outstanding matter on the controversial Addendum to commute Najib's sentence to house arrest issued by the former Agong. 

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Between reform promises and realpolitik: Anwar’s balancing act

By Emir Zainul / The Edge Malaysia

13 Jan 2025, 09:40 am

AS it enters the third year of administration in 2025, Malaysia’s unity government finds itself walking a political tightrope. Balancing economic pragmatism with political survival, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is seen to have adopted a delicate strategy of compromise — one that faces scrutiny from every angle.

From appealing to the Malay demographic to navigating the demands of Sabah and Sarawak, Anwar must simultaneously address accusations of abandoning his Reformasi agenda — the rallying cry of his 25-year political movement that got him to his premiership — while managing the boundaries of race, religion and royalty in public discourse.

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Trump tariff: US's new war mode or economic survival?

The Malaysian semi-conductor industry was slapped with the much awaited Trump tariff of 25%. It should be expected (read September 2024 posting here) but analysts, trade association spokesmen, and government officials been consoling themselves it will not happen.

Earlier this week, stocks of the once booming glove manufacturers caved in and possibly looking at it’s demise following China dumping as a result of tariff imposed by the US.  

These are disruptive economic developments beyond any policymaker anticipation. The usual Malaysians' reactions are to find fault with the Ambassador to the US, and pick on Minister’s frequent overseas trips to even Anwar’s stance on Palestine. Blame does not solve problems. Another coup d'etat only worsen matters.

Trump’s actions are to address the longstanding American twin deficit problem. Since the 80s, US faced simultaneous occurrence of large budget and trade deficit. Economic stability and potential negative impact on the US dollar are real concerns.

At the same time, there is strategic consideration to MAGA and defend unipolarity to maintain military and geoglobal political dominance. Another war seemed beyond their affordability. 

So is trade war the next and more feasible option?

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No positive spin could cover tense Modi-Trump meeting

On the eve of Modi's visit of Washington, this blog put up a posting out of curiosity on the direction of India's foreign policy vis-a-vis their position in BRICS and traditionally long relation with Russia. Bloomberg columnist Andy Mukherjee anticipated it will be a tense and uncomfortable event with Trump demanding trade concessions from India.  

Indian media downplayed the tough meeting for their Prime Minister. India Today "bodek" (to use the Malay lingo for excessive praising) Modi to quote CNN describing him a masterclass negotiator. While, NDTV was more honest with a tad of defensive as more productive than expected. 

It wasn't as successful as reported by India Today. So was the view of The Diplomat's Rushali Saha who summed it up as promising, good optics but challenging. It remains to be seen as to how much India will be impacted. India has a long history of tariff tension. That was the view of Singapore's ST.   

Over the weekend and days after the "historic" meet, the market in India can feel the chill. Andy Mukerjee again below:

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Southeast Asia’s rice crisis is a ticking time bomb

Ensuring food security for the region and beyond requires urgent action to modernise agriculture, diversify suppliers and strengthen cooperation

Genevieve Donnellon-May

South China Morning Post 16 Feb 2025

In Southeast Asia, rice is more than just a food – it is the foundation of survival for almost 700 million people. But what happens when this lifeline begins to unravel? 

Climate change, economic pressures, limited arable land and water resources, and inefficient agricultural practices are threatening the region’s rice production, putting the future of hundreds of millions at risk.

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End of Asian Century, rise of 'Pax Technologica'?

What's happened to the Asian Century?

Bangkok Post 

February 14, 2025 17:05 JST

The ASEAN flag is placed alongside the flags of its member countries ahead of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat in Langkawi, Malaysia, in January 2025. © Reuters

Until recently, the "Asian Century" seemed a compelling narrative but now it is not what it used to be. It was supposed to herald a shift in global economic power from the West to the East, driven by China's rapid rise, India's economic dynamism, and the broader development of Asia. But a quarter of the way into the 21st century, the promise of Asian dominance appears less certain. 

The enduring technological and economic might of the United States, coupled with its geopolitical backlash against China, has lowered expectations. While Asia remains formidable, the trajectory of global power is open and fluid, with potential dominance shifting not necessarily to any nation or region but perhaps to a non-state entity.

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China leading the moon race against US

Recently, a Tik Tok video claim there is a race between US and China for the moon again. This time, the race is for whom to be first to put up a base station. Apparently the race similar to the one to put the first man to space between US and USSR back in the 60s is for real. 

An October 2024 article in The Conversation reported US is losing the race. The US's Artemis III lunar plan delayed in getting ready the space suit and lunar landing vehicle. China showed off their moon walker suits last year September.

India's Millenium post reported China can boast a much-developed and ambitious space programme. They have undertaken spacewalk, anti-satellite program (ASAT) test, a successful space station, successfully conducted three unmanned lunar missions and created the artificial sun. 

They are planning to undertake a manned lunar mission by 2030.

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With a MAGA Trump, will India be forced to pick a side?

Today February 12th to the 13th, Modi will be the second foreign leader to visit Donald Trump in Washington. 

Since Trump's threat to impose 100% tariff on BRICS countries "ditching the dollar", India reportedly rejected any planned BRICS currency, in which Yuan will have a prominent role. However, could they afford to take such firm stand with India's strengthened trade and military cooperation with Russia, including Russia-India trade route through Central Asia? 

India have been playing both sides of the geopolitical divide. Delicately balancing the oil diplomacy to source oil from Russia and Iran and redistribute to Europe and South America. Despite being a founding member of BRICS and participated in the Shanghai Cooperation, India is also a member of QUAD, a military cooperation for the Indian Ocean security meant to contain China. 

With US's intensified sanctions against China, Russia and Iran, including the latest threat on South Africa, it will be more challenging for India to continue to play the same game. 

Modi could boost of strong rapport with Trump in the past, but second term Trump seemed less accomodative. The inhumane deportation of 104 Indian undocumented immigrants, which invited anger from within India, is indicative. 

Migration is output of India's human development and contribute to the remittance economy. Thus goverment would rather remain silent and cooperate in the deportation of its citizen. 

Question is will America-first Trump have a place for India to forge any strategic ties to counter China.  

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Philip Golingai: "So could Najib become PM for a second time?"

The Art of the Impossible

By Philip Golingai

IT'S JUST POLITICS 

The Star Sunday, 09 Feb 2025

DURING the Chinese New Year lunch and dinner meet-ups I’ve been attending, the FAQ is which former prime minister could make a political comeback.

I am not sure why this is a hot topic.

Perhaps because I meet up mostly with people – businessmen, politicians, and academicians – who are political junkies. Or maybe because they know I write about politics.

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Seeing through the noise and negotiation ploy

The new POTUS is certainly creating chaos from his endless stream of noises. But is Donald Trump really effective?

Notice News on Meta had an interesting observation:

It may seem like Donald Trump is making a lot of deep, fundamental changes to the federal government, but the truth is—he’s not.

Like any president, Trump is fairly restricted by what he can do: by the constitution, by congress, and by the courts.

And while Trump likes to make a big splash announcing stuff and signing his name, most of his biggest moves have been stopped in their tracks.

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CHINA by an Egyptian China-watcher

China’s space station: From no flush toilets to building its own space station within 40 years.

By Ismail Bashmori

AS an Egyptian, I have been studying China intensely for the past year — its government, society, history, and transformation.

I’ve spoken to hundreds of Chinese and China-haters and heard everything they had to say. By now I’ve learned roughly as much about China as anyone can learn without knowing the language or living in the country, and I’ve reached my conclusion. China attracts a lot of haters, know-nothings and armchair experts.

The truth is that China is the greatest country on the face of the earth. It makes all other countries look insignificant and contemptible. It is the most brilliant, most industrious, most ambitious, most educated, meritocratic and technocratic, most modern, sophisticated, and civilised, and best-governed by far.

It is the first non-white, non-Western country to reach this status since the 1600s. The determination of this country is indescribable. Supernatural. There is no force that can stop it from accomplishing anything it wants to do.

Forty years ago a flush toilet in China was a luxury. Today it has its own Space Station. This is a tiny example of China’s capabilities.

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Food security: Something terribly wrong in this country

This poster was taken from the ISIS website for a 2022 article by Herizal Hezri. It appropriately explained the awkward situation happening in Malaysia. 

Yesterday a group of padi farmer gathered in Putrajaya to submit a memorandum to the Prime Minister. Recently a member of NACOL repeated his call to question the supply of local padi. Obviously the MP for Bukit Gantang is merely voicing a populist call to make available cheaper local rice and perhaps a threat to switch support back to opposition.  

The question is whether local rice production is available given the various structural industry issues, preference for import over local production by agricultural agencies and the sole rice import concession holder, rice millers oppressive practises, and interest of urban consumers favoured over old and poor rural padi farmers. 

This blog have not been writing on padi issues for quite awhile. The then cause celebre against the problematic Director General of Kawal Selia Padi at the Ministry of Agriculture have been achieved. Unfortunately, many more self serving Azman Mahmoods in the agricultural establishments are around to block progress. 

Padi problem is indicative of an emerging food security problem. The whole world is concern with food security. China with 1.3 billion population is going all out to achieve self sufficiency but all seemedlost in Malaysia.

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Tackling US tariffs: Acquire or merge

With a possible economic fallout due to the tariffs imposed by the United States, experts are proposing takeovers of, or mergers with, foreign-owned companies, including those from China, to offset the impact.

Martin Carvalho and Junaid Ibrahim wrote in The Star today: 

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Biden's final hurrah could dash Malaysia's AI dream

The Tik Tok ban was supposed to get started on Thursday in the US, but "eyeball to eyeball, "Trump" blinked. He even invited the Tik Tok CEO to his inaugration. Possibly a deal is being hatched for American investor to take up the shares in Tik Tok's US operations. 

Is that an indication that Trump will be less hostile towards China in his second term and come to term that the world has changed from unipolar to multipolar world order? 

However, Biden had earlier followed through on his executive order made in November 2024 to ban "certain investments in semiconductors and mandates the reporting of others, in an attempt to stop U.S. capital from facilitating advancements in military and intelligence technologies within countries of concern." 

The last order made last week will impose export controls on countries in the second tier which include Malaysia. There is no restriction on the first tier of friendly nations, while the third tier countries will have a total ban. 

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Despite Trump threat and BRICS denial, de-dollarisation happening

According to Watcher.Guru's January 13th article, "De-Dollarization: 12 Countries Officially Abandon the US Dollar", the need to strengthen local currencies and boost presence in the foreign exchange market has gain steam for the move to abandon the US dollar.

China and Japan has reportedly been dumping their US dollar bond holding in the market. The latter is in the reaction by the American authority to block the sales of US Steel to Nippon Steel. 

It is no secret that China, Russia and Iran are still pushing for a BRICS currency. The belief is that BRICS will completely abandon US dollar in three years. So its a long game.

President-elect Donald Trump already threatened tariff against BRICS countries for any plan for dedollarisation. Few BRICS countries denied existence of such a plan than Russia's exuberance at the Kazan BRIC Conference. India made known their discomfort to the idea of Yuan as the BRICS intermediary currency. 

US dollar hit 2-year high indicating it remain in high demand. Americans are saying the de-dollarisation plan failed. BRICS pay still yet to make any impact. However, a study on Wolf Street portal found the de-dollarisation trend is on course as Central Banks are raising reserve in other currencies and gold.. 

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Quo Vadis national language or Dewan Bahasa Pustaka?

Prior to the holidays, NST reported on Dewan Bahasa dan Pustaka Director General, Dr Hazami Jahari with a provocative headline, "Malaysia's a strange country, people are reluctant to use the national language, says DBP chief". 

The hesitation of Malaysians to prioritise and elevate the national language is a perplexing issue, said Dewan Bahasa dan Pustaka (DBP) director-general Dr Hazami Jahari.

He said the situation clearly reflects a colonised mindset and a lack of confidence in Bahasa Melayu, perceived as lacking economic value, standardisation, and quality, Berita Harian reported.

He said this mentality contrasts with the attitudes of developed nations such as France, China, Japan, and Thailand. Even regional neighbours like Indonesia take immense pride in their national language.

The remark from the COO of a government agency, that was established in 1956 as Balai Pustaka to coordinate, promote and elevate the national language, smacks of passing blame to the public.  

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Western media PR blitz against China? Geopolitics for Japan to displace China?

The generally pessimistic and optimistic consensus outlooks for China and Japan, respectively, are obviously not without risk. — Reuters

China’s falling bond yields amplifying ‘Japanification’ concerns

By JAMIE MCGEEVER

INSIGHT 

The Star Friday, 10 Jan 2025

CHINA, the global growth engine for the last 20 years, now boasts lower long-term bond yields than Japan, the former poster child for deflationary economic stagnation. This may signal that the “factory to the world” faces the real risk of “Japanification.”

China’s bond yields have plunged to their lowest levels on record, with the two-year yield about to break below 1.00%, having been 1.50% only a few months ago.

Remarkably, China’s 30-year yield recently fell below the Japanese government bond (JGB) yield for the first time ever.

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Trump's economic dilemma: Fed concern for tariff-driven inflation

Data dependent: Fed governor Christopher Waller at a conference in California. Waller says the pace and extent of rate cuts this year will depend on inflation data. — Reuters

Worries over inflation fight as new govt set to come in

ECONOMY

The Star, Friday, 10 Jan 2025

WASHINGTON: The reality of President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory on a platform of aggressive tariffs and deportation of some immigrants landed hard at the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting last month, with US central bank officials raising new inflation concerns and staff suggesting the incoming administration’s plans may slow economic growth and raise unemployment.

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