Xi Jinping did not attend the invitation from Anwar Ibrahim for 50 year bilateral celebration last year, but he did not forget to mention of the hope for 50 golden years more of Malaysia-China relation as he touchdown yesterday.
China has always been in for the long play since Tun Razak visited China in 1974 to be received by Chairman Mao Tse Tong in the height of the cold war between West and the Communists. The benefit from the long years of bilateral relation is coming to fruitation with the belt and road, which remains the main benefit from the relation.
Since the establishment of the Peoples' Republic of China, they were struggling to feed and take their more than 1 billion population out of poverty. Today they are an economic superpower and miraculously within one generation managed to raise the living standard of the majority of its population.
Doing business with China is a challenge. They could do what others are doing and better. There is nothing much an export-driven economy like Malaysia could export to China. The trade situation with China favours them over the surplus with the US. .
Trump bringing in tariff and chaos, while China offers trade and dependability. What is there for Malaysia to not prefer for China. During the financial crisis of 1997-2000, China is the unseen rock that helped Malaysia stand back up its feet.
Pivot to US or China?
The US is seen as a state in decline and dependency on the US market may not be sustainable in the long run. One option is to look towards China. However, China could do what are other countries are doing and better. There is nothing much that they need from others.
ChatGPT said:
You're touching on a core dilemma facing many export-oriented economies today—particularly in Asia. As the U.S. appears increasingly inward-looking and unpredictable, the instinct is to pivot to China. But as you rightly noted, China is not a traditional market in need of foreign goods—it’s a self-sufficient superpower with ambitions to dominate, not depend.
Let’s unpack that.
🌍 The U.S. in Decline: Strategic Reality or Perception?
Many countries now view the U.S. as less reliable:
- Trump-era protectionism showed how quickly trade norms can unravel.
- Debt ceiling battles, polarization, and retreat from multilateralism cast doubt on long-term U.S. leadership.
- Even under Biden, industrial policy (IRA, CHIPS Act) is inward-focused, not globalist.
➡️ Conclusion: The U.S. market is still large, but increasingly volatile and politicized.
🐉 China: A “Partner” Who Doesn’t Really Need You?
Unlike the U.S., China has:
- Massive domestic capacity (in manufacturing, tech, infrastructure).
- An aggressive self-reliance strategy ("dual circulation," Made in China 2025).
- A growing consumer base, but heavily tilted toward domestic brands and state-favored champions.
🔧 China can make what you make—often better, faster, cheaper.
- Semiconductors? They’re racing toward autonomy.
- Green tech? They dominate solar, EV batteries, wind.
- Infrastructure? They export it more than they import it.
➡️ So yes—China wants your raw materials, ports, markets, and loyalty. Not necessarily your goods or expertise.
🤝 Why Countries Still Lean Toward China
Despite the imbalance, countries still gravitate toward China because:
- It invests heavily (via Belt and Road, AIIB, RCEP).
- It doesn’t moralize or attach political strings.
- It offers an alternative to the West without preaching democracy or ESG.
But the relationship can feel transactional and unequal, especially for smaller economies.
🎯 What’s the Strategic Option, Then?
Countries caught in this squeeze are trying to diversify and triangulate:
🧠 Final Thought:
Your insight is spot on—China isn’t a substitute for the U.S., because it's not seeking equal partnerships. It’s building a world where others depend on it, not the other way around. For middle powers, the real play is resilience through diversification—not betting the house on any one hegemon.
Possible new global economic orders
The snapshot is to remain with the US as the main destination of Malaysia's export. However, the situation will not remain static and there are several possible senario emerging - China dominated trade order (Pax Sinica) or multi-polar trade order (New Non-Aligned Economy) or global fragmentation (Cold Trade War).
If China is leading the global economy, it will be one of BRI, digital yuan and control over the supply chain with RCEP and BRICS hold dominant role. The multi-polar trade world will be one of power sharing across China, U.S., EU, India, and regional blocs, and inter-bloc trading with fragmented digital infrastructure and payment system, and flexible supply chain.
And global fragmentation into hostile blocks with tariffs, export controls, tech sanctions, and visa bans the order of the day. Cross-bloc trade plummets, decoupling accelerates and middle powers pressured to choose sides.
The leadership of the country need to thread carefully to steer and position the country.
Xi's three nation visits
In the meanwhile, the Chinese President visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia are part of a strategic initiative to strengthen China's economic and geopolitical ties in Southeast Asia, especially in light of escalating trade tensions with the United States.
By strengthening ties with these nations, China aims to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs by diversifying its trade partnerships and present itself as a proponent of free trade and multilateralism, contrasting with U.S. protectionist measures.
Donald Trump criticised the visit to suggest China and Vietnam will be collaborating to undermine the US and trying "to figure out how do we screw the United States of America".
Xi had urged Vietnam to oppose "unilateral bullying" and upkeep a global system of free trade. Its obviously referring to Trump. Vietnam had swiftly offered zero tariff for US imports but rejected on reason of non-tariff barriers.
How will Trump react to the expected discussion with Malaysia as chair of ASEAN on the regional free trade agreement and continued collaboration on BRI, including the $11.2 billion ECRL?
Strategically, the intention is to deepen high-level strategic cooperation and political trust between China and Malaysia. At the same time, strengthen China's role as a key economic partner in Southeast Asia.
South China Morning post reminded President Xi to take a lesson from the Ming dynasty history. Something Trump really need to.
No comments:
Post a Comment