The impending fall of Vincent Tan

History is filled with the rise and fall of leaders, empires and civilisations. One such history is probably in the making.Another Mahathir man be biting the dust.

Last week August 23rd, Forbes published an article on the upcoming listing of 99 Speedmart. The rival of Vincent Tan's 7-Eleven will make founder Lim Thiam Wah the next billionaire. Thiam Wah was a former shareholder of Alliance Bank and has since sold his 18% stake.

In the meanwhile, controversial KKMart aborted its listing plan in March but is back on course. The charges against KKMart founder and executive chairman, Datuk Seri Dr Chai Kee Kan and his Director wife Datin Seri Loh Siew Mui thrown out by the court. 

It looked to be a fix-up job to an experienced eye of Malaysia's toxic politics of race and religion.  

Pemuda UMNO Chief, Datuk Dr Akmal Salleh made an issue out of it and the majority of Muslim population got riled up over 5 stockins with the name of Allah found at two KKmart outlets and viraled by preacher Firdaus Wong. . 

Yes, its not a mistake. Akmal was bestowed Datokship by the TYT of Melaka. The KKMart affair raised his political profile within UMNO and among Malay electorates. But thats another story. 

The point is another competitor for Vincent Tan's Berjaya Group beefing up for competition. However, this posting is not about a possible trade war of neighbourhood sundry shops transformed as convenience retail outlets. 

Its about Vincent Tan. 

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Tax: Another elephant in the room

There is an allegation on social media yesterday of government facing a deficit in its operating expenses in the midst of concern of rising debt. 

That is both a serious allegation and supposedly shocking revelation from on an undisclosed source. The federal constitution forbid borrowing to fund government operating expenses. Perhaps, there is projected funds inflow and deficit is transitory. See how the account close.

Since the social media have been both critical and cynical on the fuel rationalisation plan, then they can see the need to move from diesel rationalisation to the next phase of the fiscal reform for Ron 95 rationalisation. 

Whether they like it or not, the elephant in the room is the perennial issue of low tax revenue. Since they are those strongly advocating for the return of the cascading effect GST, they should have no complain for e-invoicing.

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Successful reset to Mahathir's past Indian diplomatic bungle

Anwar Ibrahim's three day visit to India from Monday the 19th to Wednesday 21st yielded an MOU worth RM8 billion, boosting trade, and described as successful by media today. 

The usual cliched words to report any formal visits abroad. It required a closer inspection of the achievements of the visits and a reflection of the political event in the last 5 year to appreciate its significance.

In particular, there was a strained relation in 2019 during Mahathir's second term as Prime Minister. He claimed India was bitter with his remark on Kashmir at the United Nation. 

Though true, Mahathir was not consistent and selective. He is silent  on the suppression of Uighar by the Chinese. 

The truth is he was bitter with India for filing criminal charges against his widely talked "business proxy", Ananda Krishnan which caused his US$7 billion wiped out from his business venture in India!      

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Thailand: More political drama or nearing end game?

The economy of Thailand have been sluggish lately, but not its politics.  

One view is the economic malaise was due to Pita Limjaroenrat being denied to lead the government and his party, Moving Forward Party (MFP), which won the majority in last year's Thai general election by campaigning for the repeal of Lese Majeste law, was disbanded by the Consitutional Court. 

Its alleged that Pita is supported by the US for his liberal democracy agenda and in retaliation, the economy suffered for denying his victory.  

However, Thailand is of interest not for the politics but for the attention of Anwar Ibrahim for meeting twice in a month his Thai countepart, Srettha Thavisin.

From current, Srettha turned former Prime Minister over the weekend. Replacing him is Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37 year old daughter of deposed former Prime Minister and de facto leader of the red shirt movement, Thaksin Sinawatra. 

Her premiership makes for interesting observation as to whether the former policemen, and businessmen before becoming Prime Minister still wield influence behind the scene in the running of the country. 

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Thanks to Annuar Musa's "Ikut aku la, Pitih aku"

The image of Tan Sri Annuar Musa campaigning at the orang Asli Pos in a Louis Vuitton jacket and giving out "cenderahati" (gifts) of biscuits and Maggi Mee sealed the unexpected win for UMNO iin Nenggiri, Hulu Kelantan and somewhat avenge Unity Government's PKR dismal lost at Sungai Bakap.

Being made a campaign target and politically cyberbullied, Annuar the loud, narcissistic and a bully himself chose to respond head-on to the viral image of the price tag of his LV jacket and other luxury branded clothings, footwear and watches on stage in Kelantanese dilect, "It's up to me, it's my money!" 

Without knowledge of happening on the ground, that seemed to pretty much sealed Bersatu's fate that saw BN  win back the state assembly seat lost at the 15th general election, in which the longest serving MP in Malaysia, the venerable Tengku Razaleign Hamzah lost the seat he held since 1974. 

Its a consoling win for Ku Li with UMNO's Mohamed Asmawi Fikri beaten Bersatu's imported candidate from PAS, Mohd Iswardi Ismail by 3.352 votes. His influence and respect among the Orang Asli remain.  

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BNM announced higher than expected 2Q GDP

Bank Negara Malaysia and Department of Statistic announced a second quarter GDP, slightly higher than the advanced estimate of 5.8% announced by Anwar Ibrahim last month. 

Free Malaysia Today reported: 

Malaysia’s GDP grows 5.9% in Q2 2024

Natasha Busst and Emma Husun - 16 Aug 2024, 12:06 PM

Bank Negara Malaysia attributes performance to stronger household spending amid positive labour market conditions and larger policy support.

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s economy grew 5.9% in the second quarter of this year (Q2 2024) thanks to stronger household spending amid positive labour market conditions and larger policy support.

Bank Negara Malaysia also attributed the strong growth rate to a pick-up in exports and tourist arrivals, as well as robust expansion in investment activities.

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Forget US, Europe, Goldman re-rating Malaysia

So much for Donald Trump and some pessimism on Malaysia. 

And, so much for market getting more pessimistic on the possibility of  recession after last week's public relation exercise by Wall Street to claim it is not as bad. In Star Online today, "Market pricing in higher recession odds", the sub-heading reads "Goldman, JP Morgan say chances of downturn still remain".

Not too far off from this blogger's expectectation of the post- "crash" market condition  here. There is also the contrarian view such as this Wells Fargo strategist's prediction of 1995 re-run here.

However, the "crash" seemed to be a blessing in disguise. Despite the fear of war in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine war could erupt with a Ukraine attempt to encroach into Russian controlled area, Malaysia is on the spotlight.

Its getting re-rating from none other than Goldman Sachs, the Investment Bank in a legal dispute with Malaysia in relation to 1MDB.  

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