Tuesday, November 1, 2022

PH's shifting cultivation strategy


This evening BN will be announcing their much awaited candidate list. 

It is known that BN is on a rejuvenation mode to put up 70% new and young faces, the proven formula for their success at the Melaka and Johor by-election.  

Few renown veterans have been dropped. The surprised, unhappy reactions and opposition is only expected. Usually it will last for few days before campaign resume as usual. 

The strategy behind the candidate list for DAP, Amanah and particularly PKR is most interesting. 

It is a massive make or break exercise to emulate Lim Kit Siang's proven, for lack of a better term, "shifting cultivation" strategy. 

Make or break PM


It is considered as make or break because Kit Siang is retired and at 75, it is Anwar Ibrahim's last chance to taste the premiership. 

In 5 years, he will be 80 and unlikely for excessively old politician will ever be at the helm of power as Tun Dr Mahathir had. 

More than 50% of the 21.2 million voters are within the age of below 40 years old with 4.6 million between the age of 21 to 29 years old. It is time for the new generation to take over. 

BN's successful two state elections and internal survey done by political parties rates BN highly to form a majority coalition government with parties from Sabah and Sarawak. 

It's the reason all political parties lacks any serious policy narratives in their political campaign thus resorting to aim their guns at BN using petty political rhetorics and mind games.

The shifting cultivation strategy basically involves big named leaders of PH moving out of their safe seats to either explore new seats or fortify weakening seats. This is most prevalently done by DAP.

Wong Kah Wong from Ipoh Timor moved to Taiping to prevent a possible voters' shift. Gobind Singh moved to replace temporary retiring Tony Pua at Damansara while Yeoh Bee Hin is brought back for rehab in Puchong. 

Party clean-up


PKR embarked on the same objective in a bigger way but with the additional aim to obliterate those former PKR MPs dubbed as traitors for crossing over to PPBM.   

Most prominent is Anwar running in Tambun which served the strategy to takeover swing state Perak. 

The likes of Sivarasa Rasiah, Maria Chin and Tian Chua supposedly Azmin's former allies in PKR are dropped. While Selangor MB, Amiruddin Shaari and Roziah were pit against their former bosses in Gombak and  Ampang, respectively. 

It is a test of loyalty between the party and the bond to their former faction leader. On the flip side, it could end up terminating the political career of both contesting parties. 

Shifting cultivation is a farming method where land are temporariy cultivated for two to three seasons than abandoned to shift to new plots to allow the former farm to regenerate its fertility. 

There is the destructive slash and burn practise where the native vegetation is cut and burn, planted with crop on the ash-fertilized land for few seasons before shifting to repeat the same process on another plot. 

Thus far, Lim Kit Siang and latest with limited success Liew Chin Tong have acquired new seats while DAP managed to avoid the previous seat from being abandoned. 

This election is about PH vs BN & friends with PN biting into some seats with other parties acting as spoilers to any of the three. 

Will it work?

Whether this do or dies strategy of PH works, the seats left by the shifted candidate must remain and new seats gained.

It can only be gauged after the indication from BN's candidate list tonight. BN is in a confidence mode but competition for seats is stiff between aspirants. Reactions from unselected incumbents can set a back campaign.  


Anwar claimed Invoke projection shows PH short by 12 seats to form the government. 

However PH is severely disadvantaged in Sabah and Sarawak and could hardly win any more than few seats, thus putting them at a disadvantage. 

DAP is heard to be running only in Sibu and Bintulu while abandoning traditional seats in Kuching and Miri. For PH to win 112 seats from the 165 Semenanjong seats minus 20 forecasted hardcore PAS seats would require winning more than 70% of seats available. 

Whether it will emulate DAP's gainful shifting or slash and burn farming, let see what happens in slightly more than 2 weeks.

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