Friday, November 17, 2023

More to leave PN, but Hamzah refused to negotiate MP allocation?

The High Court dismissed application from BERSATU to seek judicial review to force Parliament Speaker Tan Sri Johari Abdul to proclaim the seats of four BERSATU MPs giving support to Prime Minister, Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim as vacant.

The MPs are still member and claiming loyalty to their party so it is not valid. It was a loophole in the Anti-Hopping Law enacted by the Muhyiddin-led PN government. Wan Junaidi said Muhyiddin refused to plug it as though he appears inconsistent. He was preparing for something

The ensuing drama on MPs' "crossover of support" seemed to be an attempt to divert attention from the issue of MP allocation. Opposition MPs have been harping on it in Parliament. A three men team to negotiate was formed by PN in May, but Hamzah refused to negotiate.

When they finally do, Takiyudin triggered the dealbreaker by refusing government side request to write in their term, but insisted government side put their proposal first. It was obviously an excuse. Why and what is PN up to?  

Hamzah willing to lose more seats?

Anwar budgeted allocations for MPs' constituency, but insisted on a prior negotiation and similar CSA to Ismail Sabri. 

Perhaps irritated by Hadi's repeated mentioning of "Tebuk Attap" (hacking the roof) ala Sheraton Move, he need to ensure stability to focus on the economic woes left by Muhyiddin. 

The MPs' request are genuine and Hamzah knows it will cost him more MPs. Confidence is at a low ebb. In a Podcast on You Tube, Dato Kamal Amir hinted that by year end, the government MPs and PN MPs supporting PMX could reach 168

It means 21 MPs will switch support and it may include several PAS MPs. Tuan Ibrahim spoke too soon.

Yet PPBM is adamant to play politics. The court application was part of the planned response from BERSATU's emergency meting on the day the MPs for Gua Musang dan Jeli followed the suit of Kuala Kangsar and Labuan. It is supposed to be five but maybe later. 

The reason seemed primarily allocation, but heard it is a myriad of legitimate reasons including disenchantment. But in their usual aloof and indifferent attitude, PPBM emergency meeting concluded with the token expression of support to Muhyiddin.

The "scheme of things" President claimed there was bribery in the form of allocation, positions etc. being offered to entice MPs. And in the PC, he repeated the same claim of Hamzah that there were threat of investigation from  authorities. 

The usual game to make police report, MACC report and legal avenues to challenge the Anti Hopping Law can only be the expected. Muhyiddin think the public forgot he tried to use the loophole but failed to pull 10 BN MPs to support him without switching party after GE15.

BERSATU's Youth Chief, Wan Fayshal led the police report and cited Anwar's former political secretary, Farhash Wada Salvador and a "Datok Botak" as the man enticing BERSATU's MPs

When threatened with a police report and possibly lawsuit, Fayshal seemed shaken with his bold front unconvincing. Saifuddin Nasution was also unperturbed by Wan Fayshal's threat. He gladly assisted the reports to be made with suggestions.

Toppling Anwar

The crisis between PPBM and PAS have been brewing at the grassroot on campaign work, big brother attitude of PAS, and at few hotspots such as Perlis, Perak and Melaka. PAS Perlis tried to keep it under lid but a BERSATU assemblyman called on the incompetent MB to resign yesterday.

The problem may have erupted at the top level of the party following Hadi's invitation to Mahathir and his acceptance to be Adviser to the four PAS controlled states.

There is the growing suspicion Mahathir has lost interest with PAS. He wouldn't be revealing using PAS like he did of DAP had he not lost interest too. Maybe PAS is not up to it and not meeting his expectation.

Before pondering over the reason for Hamzah's reluctance to do so, the lengthy account and analysis from Financetwitter to caution Anwar of the possibility of a double edge sword is interesting read.

An extract below:

Even if a CSA deal can be made, it will create a new crisis between Bersatu and PAS. Either way, PM Anwar has strengthened his parliamentary support to 151 – beyond the 148 super-majority seats. It would certainly be comical if the disgraced Muhyiddin and Hamzah shamelessly claim they have 31 seats in the parliament despite the majority of them moved to the unity government bloc.

The Unity Government should not celebrate prematurely though. The four Bersatu defectors could be “Trojan horse”, who can still switch their alliance back to their party. The tactic of switching support without switching parties is a double-edged sword. UMNO moles like Hishammuddin Hussein – and even moles within Anwar’s PKR party – may use the same “loophole” to topple the prime minister.

If the defections were orchestrated by Bersatu strategists to test the water, and PM Anwar foolishly swallows the hook, line and sinker by “legitimizing” the four Bersatu MPs support for him, a vote of confidence in parliament could see 10 UMNO MPs along with Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) suddenly crossing over to Perikatan Nasional in “Sheraton Move 2.0”.

The recent appointment of Mahathir Mohamad as adviser to Perikatan Nasional might be the secret weapon to persuade Sarawak-based GPS to switch support to Perikatan Nasional from Pakatan Harapan, leading to the collapse of Anwar government. The PM should close all loopholes in the anti-hopping law. He does not need the dubious support from the four Bersatu MPs.

Those following Khairy and Shahril's podcast interview of Mahathir would have concluded that the centurion is dead set to topple Anwar. So do Tun Daim Zainuddin but for his equally selfish reason to preserve his loot. 

Since the commotion over Pandora Paper and swindeled UMNO assets against Daim commotion over Pandora Paper and swindeled UMNO assets against Daim from MACC, much have been heard of him meeting various people including head of states and Sultans to seek support. 

Apparently the target date is between 6 to 12 months and October was the 6th month.

PPBM internal strife

Muhyiddin is done for and the play to dispense him has started

Sources claim Mahathir platform will eventually be PPBM and he will be working with Hamzah whose aspiring to be PPBM next President. 

Muhyiddin has too many problems in hand and fear taking over Najib's room in Kajang prison. He will likely give way soon to the surprise of many.

As far as Mahathir, he has no unfinished business to elevate Melayu and Proklamasi Orang Melayu is to put wool over their eyes. He wants to see UMNO "BN-ended" and swipe any remaining fingerprint traces of his past wrongdoings. 

Hamzah may and may not agree, but he is definitely up to something including trying to ride on Najib's popularity within UMNO. He made several personal visit to Najib before his imprisonment. A source claimed Daim enticed with offer to help Najib get out. 

The way Hamzah operate he will not rule out the option for future collaboration or remerger with UMNO after Zahid stepdown. In the meanwhile, an increasingly disenchanted PN leader claimed they have 115 in hand. A source was told by a former Broker Gang Minister to watch for January after flood season over. 

A little bird up north claimed PN cybertrooper been whispering 119. Will it mean the four BERSATU MP will do a Perak 2009 in which an UMNO assembleyman who announced crossing over to PKR reversed when BN retook the state by party hopping?

Azmin has been keeping quiet and not attending PPB's Emergency Meeting. He is most dangerous when he is off the radar. 

Azmin also has ambition to takeover from Muhyiddin. He had always been Muhyiddin's prefered one and was appointed Senior Minister over Hamzah. More over, he is also acceptable to Mahathir but without a seat in Parliament, he is not a useful political asset for the current move.

The signature of his moves can be seen. For instance, his man Chegubard attacked Faizal Azumu aka Peja for PN poor performance at the Negeri Sembilan state election. He upped the attack to accuse Peja for orchestrating PN MPs support to Anwar. 

Peja's objective is not clear, and plan not known. He is seldom over looked and the proven Perak gamechanger under rated. 

Peja is friendly and approachable to the many factions and parties. Joceline Tan still believe he remainedloyal to Muhyiddin and covered his line. All fingers are still pointing at him and presumed he has a role. 

The reason Azmin is hitting at Peja is to narrow down his competitor to only Hamzah. 

Do not rule out Peja and Azmin are running mates. It is suspected that the London Move video viral by Edisi Siasat is Hamzah's move against Peja. In the meanwhile, it is believed that Azmin had a hand in fixing Hamzah with the subsidised oil palm case against Hamzah's son. 

It is not Hamzah to not retaliate. He has wider contacts in government and law enforcement than Azmin. As part of the deal with IRD, he could negotiate payment and put Azmin on a skewer. 

Azmin is a bigger fish for the law enforcement agencies to catch than Hamzah. In a confidential private briefing, it was revealed he had amassed more than a billion as MB and Minister.  

Apparently a political secretary had issued a press release on Azmin's involvement in skimming off land belonging to an Islamic trustee (wakaf). The YB ku Mr 5% video is suspiciously him too.

The rumour has gotten louder, but no arrest forthcoming yet. It is heard he is trying to reach out to Anwar but in vain.   

Number game

As far as Mahathir, be it Hamzah or Azmin or Peja, the Machiavellian master is determined to topple Anwar. Anwar's supporter cautioned him too here.  

On paper the calculation being worked is as follows:

According to the plan, Unity Government will end up as follows:

That number does not include possibilities from certain factions in PKR and DAP. Daim been throwing Rafizi's name around.

With the momentum Anwar is getting, none dare to commit as yet. One wrong move will mean the end of their political career. For those living in glass houses, throwing stones can end one stuck for long number of years up and down the court house and maybe the same fate as Syed Saddiq. 

Politically Sabah and Sarawak looks calm but it is usually so before any major storm. 

Sabah is facing a state election next year. The political temperature will only rise. Component party members of the Unity Government look set to face off with one another. 

Possible PBS-STAR merger is an interesting development. Muslim parties at their weakest to go solo or form coalition against GRS. It will be Zahid's grave mistake to ally with Pilak.

Sarawak looks calm and steady under Abang Zohari. GPS politics is stable and unexpected event or narrative seldom occur. Anwar is safe.

However it is suicidal for him to take Sarawak or his good relation with Premier for granted. PTD seemed to be doing something covertly to stir things up.

Water runs deep in Sarawak. The calm river is inhabited by Bujang Senang (crocodile). The undercurrent is increasingly unpredictable. There is a new and rising social consciousness developing within Borneo in which the Semenanjong is unaware.

That is for another posting but ponder what Sarawak controlled Focus Malaysia up to being negative on PMX here

Anwar should not get carried away. The economic sea he is steering the ship is rough. In the words of Bill Clinton in his Presidential debate against George Bush, "It's the economy, stupid". 

If the economy gets any worse, so far the economic trend and market actions indicate so, the political advantage can easily slip away. 

The businessmen and corporate people are not encouraged with the rate economy is going. China's economic recovery is still iffy and the conversation is them emulating Japan long lull.

International funds are leaving the local market. Both Bursa and SC may have compromised governance and not making serious effort to woe them for next year's asset allocation. 

Mahathir knows that and so do Daim. 

Its already a year. His young team is not up to mark. Uncomfortable reality to PKR political bureau, the governing capability of the Unity Government is amongst the BN MPs. 

If the priority is the country, PKR need to tame their rebellion blood and sensibly bring talent from outside as Ministers.

For the sake of preserving the Unity Government, Anwar should stop being too syok with politics and international affair. He has to stay focus on the economy and spend more time in the office to clear his backlog.

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